DDM Analysis: CXW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.44 - $10.86	$9.09
Multi-Stage	$12.71 - $14.00	$13.34
Blended Fair Value	$11.22
Current Price	$20.35
Upside	-44.88%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-76.96%	-52.53%	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.96	1.91	1.86	1.82	2.32	2.28
YoY Growth	-	-	3.82%	-85.21%	-64.67%	-97.63%	-49.42%	2.61%	1.93%	-21.59%	1.92%	7.11%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.01%	0.01%	0.09%	0.20%	10.65%	17.06%	9.42%	9.33%	7.40%	7.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	109.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)	109.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	21.85	13.66	8.19
Cash Retained (M)	109.20	109.20	109.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-21.85	-13.66	-8.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)	87.35	95.54	101.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	109.94	109.94	109.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.79	0.87	0.92
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.79	0.87	0.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.79	0.87	0.92
WACC / Discount Rate	8.26%	8.26%	8.26%
Growth Rate	-2.19%	-1.19%	-0.19%
Fair Value	$7.44	$9.09	$10.86
Upside / Downside	-63.44%	-55.32%	-46.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	109.24	107.94	106.65	105.38	104.12	102.88	105.96
Payout Ratio	0.04%	18.03%	36.02%	54.02%	72.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.05	19.46	38.42	56.92	74.97	92.59	98.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.26%	8.26%	8.26%
Growth Rate	-2.19%	-1.19%	-0.19%
Year 1 PV (M)	17.80	17.98	18.16
Year 2 PV (M)	32.12	32.78	33.45
Year 3 PV (M)	43.52	44.87	46.24
Year 4 PV (M)	52.41	54.59	56.83
Year 5 PV (M)	59.19	62.27	65.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,192.20	1,254.41	1,319.19
Equity Value (M)	1,397.24	1,466.91	1,539.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	109.94	109.94	109.94
Fair Value	$12.71	$13.34	$14.00
Upside / Downside	-37.55%	-34.43%	-31.20%

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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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