Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - SpecialtySector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.42 - $10.82$9.07
Multi-Stage$12.64 - $13.92$13.27
Blended Fair Value$11.17
Current Price$20.35
Upside-45.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-76.96%-52.53%0.000.000.010.020.961.911.861.822.322.28
YoY Growth--3.82%-85.21%-64.67%-97.63%-49.42%2.61%1.93%-21.59%1.92%7.11%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.01%0.09%0.20%10.65%17.06%9.42%9.33%7.40%7.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)109.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.8513.668.19
Cash Retained (M)109.20109.20109.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.85-13.66-8.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.3595.54101.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)109.94109.94109.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.790.870.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.790.870.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate8.28%8.28%8.28%
Growth Rate-2.19%-1.19%-0.19%
Fair Value$7.42$9.07$10.82
Upside / Downside-63.53%-55.45%-46.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)109.24107.94106.65105.38104.12102.88105.96
Payout Ratio0.04%18.03%36.02%54.02%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0519.4638.4256.9274.9792.5998.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.28%8.28%8.28%
Growth Rate-2.19%-1.19%-0.19%
Year 1 PV (M)17.7917.9818.16
Year 2 PV (M)32.1132.7733.43
Year 3 PV (M)43.4844.8346.21
Year 4 PV (M)52.3654.5356.78
Year 5 PV (M)59.1162.1965.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,184.371,246.171,310.52
Equity Value (M)1,389.231,458.471,530.50
Shares Outstanding (M)109.94109.94109.94
Fair Value$12.64$13.27$13.92
Upside / Downside-37.91%-34.81%-31.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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