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Definitive Analysis

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TPR Co., Ltd. (6463.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40,699.64 - $47,990.22$44,955.69
Multi-Stage$27,673.41 - $30,499.77$29,059.03
Blended Fair Value$37,007.36
Current Price$1,217.00
Upside2,940.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.54%10.82%73.3747.3048.8643.3143.6048.7145.3044.3441.6745.88
YoY Growth--55.13%-3.20%12.82%-0.66%-10.51%7.53%2.17%6.40%-9.17%74.66%
Dividend Yield--7.53%3.76%5.77%7.21%5.90%7.27%4.77%3.44%2.30%4.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,473.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)678.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,794.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,094.601,309.13785.48
Cash Retained (M)9,794.509,794.509,794.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,094.60-1,309.13-785.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,699.908,485.389,009.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share185.05203.93216.51
LTM Dividend per Share16.3116.3116.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share185.05203.93216.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend201.36220.23232.82
WACC / Discount Rate-1.23%-1.23%-1.23%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Fair Value$40,699.64$44,955.69$47,990.22
Upside / Downside3,244.26%3,593.98%3,843.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,473.0010,689.1910,909.8411,135.0411,364.9011,599.4911,947.48
Payout Ratio6.48%23.18%39.89%56.59%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)678.502,478.064,351.626,301.488,329.9810,439.5511,051.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.23%-1.23%-1.23%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)2,484.372,508.962,533.54
Year 2 PV (M)4,373.834,460.814,548.65
Year 3 PV (M)6,349.786,540.146,734.26
Year 4 PV (M)8,415.228,753.269,101.38
Year 5 PV (M)10,573.2411,106.7911,661.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,119,295.211,175,777.391,234,517.07
Equity Value (M)1,151,491.651,209,147.341,269,096.57
Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
Fair Value$27,673.41$29,059.03$30,499.77
Upside / Downside2,173.90%2,287.76%2,406.14%

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