Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

TPR Co., Ltd. (6463.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,717.81 - $6,907.85$5,024.56
Multi-Stage$5,797.63 - $6,375.80$6,081.16
Blended Fair Value$5,552.86
Current Price$1,217.00
Upside356.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.54%10.82%73.3747.3048.8643.3143.6048.7145.3044.3441.6745.88
YoY Growth--55.13%-3.20%12.82%-0.66%-10.51%7.53%2.17%6.40%-9.17%74.66%
Dividend Yield--7.53%3.76%5.77%7.21%5.90%7.27%4.77%3.44%2.30%4.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,473.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)678.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,794.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,094.601,309.13785.48
Cash Retained (M)9,794.509,794.509,794.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,094.60-1,309.13-785.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,699.908,485.389,009.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share185.05203.93216.51
LTM Dividend per Share16.3116.3116.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share185.05203.93216.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend201.36220.23232.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Fair Value$3,717.81$5,024.56$6,907.85
Upside / Downside205.49%312.86%467.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,473.0010,689.1910,909.8411,135.0411,364.9011,599.4911,947.48
Payout Ratio6.48%23.18%39.89%56.59%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)678.502,478.064,351.626,301.488,329.9810,439.5511,051.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)2,303.202,325.992,348.78
Year 2 PV (M)3,759.163,833.923,909.42
Year 3 PV (M)5,059.445,211.125,365.80
Year 4 PV (M)6,216.196,465.896,723.05
Year 5 PV (M)7,240.727,606.107,986.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)216,660.89227,594.09238,964.27
Equity Value (M)241,239.60253,037.12265,297.40
Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
Fair Value$5,797.63$6,081.16$6,375.80
Upside / Downside376.39%399.68%423.90%

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