Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Bailian (Group) Co., Ltd. (600827.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.19 - $23.85$22.32
Multi-Stage$53.64 - $59.68$56.60
Blended Fair Value$39.46
Current Price$8.98
Upside339.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.53%-3.98%0.270.210.250.240.200.340.320.330.070.37
YoY Growth--27.82%-15.74%3.88%22.30%-42.04%4.63%-1.63%343.93%-79.92%-8.40%
Dividend Yield--2.94%2.35%1.92%2.22%1.11%4.35%3.13%3.03%0.46%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)242.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)239.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.5630.3518.21
Cash Retained (M)3.423.423.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.56-30.35-18.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-45.13-26.93-14.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,767.891,767.891,767.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate-30.29%-30.29%-30.29%
Growth Rate-8.11%-7.11%-6.11%
Fair Value$20.19$22.32$23.85
Upside / Downside124.85%148.60%165.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)242.78225.53209.50194.62180.79167.94172.98
Payout Ratio98.59%96.87%95.15%93.44%91.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)239.35218.47199.35181.84165.81151.15160.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-30.29%-30.29%-30.29%
Growth Rate-8.11%-7.11%-6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)310.01313.39316.76
Year 2 PV (M)401.40410.19419.07
Year 3 PV (M)519.56536.71554.23
Year 4 PV (M)672.28702.03732.75
Year 5 PV (M)869.58917.94968.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,055.0797,174.00102,518.15
Equity Value (M)94,827.91100,054.24105,509.38
Shares Outstanding (M)1,767.891,767.891,767.89
Fair Value$53.64$56.60$59.68
Upside / Downside497.32%530.24%564.60%

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