Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Bailian (Group) Co., Ltd. (600827.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.19 - $23.85$22.32
Multi-Stage$121.64 - $135.38$128.36
Blended Fair Value$75.34
Current Price$8.98
Upside739.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.53%-3.98%0.270.210.250.240.200.340.320.330.070.37
YoY Growth--27.82%-15.74%3.88%22.30%-42.04%4.63%-1.63%343.93%-79.92%-8.40%
Dividend Yield--2.94%2.35%1.92%2.22%1.11%4.35%3.13%3.03%0.46%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)242.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)239.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.5630.3518.21
Cash Retained (M)3.423.423.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.56-30.35-18.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-45.13-26.93-14.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,767.891,767.891,767.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate-8.11%-7.11%-6.11%
Fair Value$20.19$22.32$23.85
Upside / Downside124.85%148.60%165.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)242.78225.53209.50194.62180.79167.94172.98
Payout Ratio98.59%96.87%95.15%93.44%91.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)239.35218.47199.35181.84165.81151.15160.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate-8.11%-7.11%-6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)365.60369.58373.56
Year 2 PV (M)558.25570.47582.82
Year 3 PV (M)852.15880.27909.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,300.321,357.861,417.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,983.522,093.822,208.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)209,977.60221,653.88233,843.90
Equity Value (M)215,037.44226,925.87239,335.52
Shares Outstanding (M)1,767.891,767.891,767.89
Fair Value$121.64$128.36$135.38
Upside / Downside1,254.51%1,329.40%1,407.57%

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