Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yum China Holdings Inc (0YU.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.25 - $79.45$54.79
Multi-Stage$42.69 - $46.76$44.69
Blended Fair Value$49.74
Current Price$59.43
Upside-16.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.50%0.00%0.620.540.500.500.240.450.400.090.000.00
YoY Growth--14.81%6.93%-0.49%113.68%-47.51%12.42%323.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%0.99%0.79%1.18%0.39%1.06%1.02%0.22%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)919.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)302.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)183.80114.8868.93
Cash Retained (M)617.00617.00617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-183.80-114.88-68.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)433.20502.13548.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.00403.00403.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.251.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.251.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.822.002.11
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate3.01%4.01%5.01%
Fair Value$39.25$54.79$79.45
Upside / Downside-33.96%-7.81%33.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)919.00955.83994.141,033.981,075.421,118.521,152.07
Payout Ratio32.86%44.29%55.72%67.14%78.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)302.00423.33553.90694.26844.981,006.661,065.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate3.01%4.01%5.01%
Year 1 PV (M)388.94392.72396.49
Year 2 PV (M)467.57476.69485.90
Year 3 PV (M)538.44554.27570.41
Year 4 PV (M)602.09625.81650.23
Year 5 PV (M)659.03691.64725.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,548.2315,268.2516,016.50
Equity Value (M)17,204.3018,009.3818,845.07
Shares Outstanding (M)403.00403.00403.00
Fair Value$42.69$44.69$46.76
Upside / Downside-28.17%-24.81%-21.32%

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