Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yum China Holdings Inc (0YU.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.07 - $57.40$42.71
Multi-Stage$34.47 - $37.72$36.06
Blended Fair Value$39.39
Current Price$59.43
Upside-33.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.50%0.00%0.620.540.500.500.240.450.400.090.000.00
YoY Growth--14.81%6.93%-0.49%113.68%-47.51%12.42%323.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%0.99%0.79%1.18%0.39%1.06%1.02%0.22%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)919.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)302.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)183.80114.8868.93
Cash Retained (M)617.00617.00617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-183.80-114.88-68.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)433.20502.13548.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.00403.00403.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.251.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.251.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.822.002.11
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate3.01%4.01%5.01%
Fair Value$32.07$42.71$57.40
Upside / Downside-46.03%-28.13%-3.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)919.00955.83994.141,033.981,075.421,118.521,152.07
Payout Ratio32.86%44.29%55.72%67.14%78.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)302.00423.33553.90694.26844.981,006.661,065.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate3.01%4.01%5.01%
Year 1 PV (M)385.12388.85392.59
Year 2 PV (M)458.41467.35476.38
Year 3 PV (M)522.70538.07553.74
Year 4 PV (M)578.74601.55625.02
Year 5 PV (M)627.24658.29690.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,318.7111,878.8912,461.03
Equity Value (M)13,890.9214,533.0015,199.32
Shares Outstanding (M)403.00403.00403.00
Fair Value$34.47$36.06$37.72
Upside / Downside-42.00%-39.32%-36.54%

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