Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.,Ltd. (003011.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.30 - $27.75$21.27
Multi-Stage$65.13 - $71.93$68.46
Blended Fair Value$44.87
Current Price$20.64
Upside117.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS29.83%0.00%0.680.710.480.330.180.190.060.050.050.00
YoY Growth---3.09%47.46%45.55%79.59%-1.27%223.29%11.36%-2.02%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.62%4.39%1.97%1.30%0.47%0.47%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7717.3610.41
Cash Retained (M)104.67104.67104.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.77-17.36-10.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.9087.3194.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.850.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.850.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.191.25
WACC / Discount Rate4.52%4.52%4.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.30$21.27$27.75
Upside / Downside-21.03%3.07%34.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.85137.46136.09134.73133.38132.05136.01
Payout Ratio24.62%37.69%50.77%63.85%76.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.1851.8269.0986.02102.60118.84125.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.52%4.52%4.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)49.0849.5850.08
Year 2 PV (M)61.9863.2564.53
Year 3 PV (M)73.0875.3477.65
Year 4 PV (M)82.5685.9889.51
Year 5 PV (M)90.5795.28100.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,316.556,645.476,987.95
Equity Value (M)6,673.817,014.907,369.91
Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
Fair Value$65.13$68.46$71.93
Upside / Downside215.57%231.70%248.48%

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