Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.,Ltd. (003011.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.01 - $27.03$20.82
Multi-Stage$60.31 - $66.59$63.38
Blended Fair Value$42.10
Current Price$20.64
Upside103.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS29.83%0.00%0.680.710.480.330.180.190.060.050.050.00
YoY Growth---3.09%47.46%45.55%79.59%-1.27%223.29%11.36%-2.02%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.62%4.39%1.97%1.30%0.47%0.47%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7717.3610.41
Cash Retained (M)104.67104.67104.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.77-17.36-10.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.9087.3194.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.850.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.850.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.191.25
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.01$20.82$27.03
Upside / Downside-22.44%0.89%30.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.85137.46136.09134.73133.38132.05136.01
Payout Ratio24.62%37.69%50.77%63.85%76.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.1851.8269.0986.02102.60118.84125.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)49.0249.5250.02
Year 2 PV (M)61.8463.1164.39
Year 3 PV (M)72.8375.0877.38
Year 4 PV (M)82.1885.5989.10
Year 5 PV (M)90.0594.7499.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,823.266,126.496,442.23
Equity Value (M)6,179.196,494.536,822.74
Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
Fair Value$60.31$63.38$66.59
Upside / Downside192.18%207.09%222.61%

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