Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Yunnan Tin Company Limited (000960.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.32 - $17.74$14.27
Multi-Stage$16.88 - $18.51$17.68
Blended Fair Value$15.98
Current Price$23.14
Upside-30.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.21%-0.92%0.510.120.110.470.410.390.450.350.370.41
YoY Growth--329.42%9.09%-77.11%16.83%2.93%-12.82%30.29%-6.19%-9.17%-26.96%
Dividend Yield--3.33%0.78%0.73%2.26%3.29%4.77%3.45%2.57%2.81%3.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,906.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)724.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,181.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)381.23238.27142.96
Cash Retained (M)1,181.451,181.451,181.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-381.23-238.27-142.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)800.22943.181,038.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,671.131,671.131,671.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Fair Value$11.32$14.27$17.74
Upside / Downside-51.09%-38.34%-23.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,906.161,930.141,954.421,979.012,003.902,029.112,089.99
Payout Ratio38.02%48.42%58.81%69.21%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)724.71934.481,149.431,369.631,595.181,826.201,933.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Year 1 PV (M)854.02862.54871.06
Year 2 PV (M)960.01979.26998.70
Year 3 PV (M)1,045.431,077.031,109.25
Year 4 PV (M)1,112.771,157.831,204.25
Year 5 PV (M)1,164.231,223.461,285.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,077.1524,251.2325,472.61
Equity Value (M)28,213.6229,551.3530,940.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,671.131,671.131,671.13
Fair Value$16.88$17.68$18.51
Upside / Downside-27.04%-23.58%-19.99%

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