Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Yunnan Tin Company Limited (000960.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.19 - $15.47$12.67
Multi-Stage$14.35 - $15.72$15.02
Blended Fair Value$13.85
Current Price$23.14
Upside-40.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.21%-0.92%0.510.120.110.470.410.390.450.350.370.41
YoY Growth--329.42%9.09%-77.11%16.83%2.93%-12.82%30.29%-6.19%-9.17%-26.96%
Dividend Yield--3.33%0.78%0.73%2.26%3.29%4.77%3.45%2.57%2.81%3.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,906.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)724.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,181.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)381.23238.27142.96
Cash Retained (M)1,181.451,181.451,181.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-381.23-238.27-142.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)800.22943.181,038.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,671.131,671.131,671.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Fair Value$10.19$12.67$15.47
Upside / Downside-55.95%-45.25%-33.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,906.161,930.141,954.421,979.012,003.902,029.112,089.99
Payout Ratio38.02%48.42%58.81%69.21%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)724.71934.481,149.431,369.631,595.181,826.201,933.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Year 1 PV (M)847.04855.49863.94
Year 2 PV (M)944.37963.30982.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,019.991,050.811,082.25
Year 4 PV (M)1,076.801,120.411,165.32
Year 5 PV (M)1,117.381,174.231,233.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,973.7719,939.0820,943.29
Equity Value (M)23,979.3525,103.3226,270.60
Shares Outstanding (M)1,671.131,671.131,671.13
Fair Value$14.35$15.02$15.72
Upside / Downside-37.99%-35.08%-32.06%

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