Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk (SIMP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,810.39 - $3,501.49$2,484.64
Multi-Stage$2,853.77 - $3,138.33$2,993.31
Blended Fair Value$2,738.98
Current Price$510.00
Upside437.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.19%0.00%10.0015.0013.003.002.673.3810.0010.005.0016.00
YoY Growth---33.33%15.38%333.34%12.26%-21.05%-66.15%0.00%100.00%-68.75%60.00%
Dividend Yield--2.59%3.97%3.25%0.60%0.55%1.61%2.28%1.68%0.80%3.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,776,204.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)155,013.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,621,191.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)355,240.80222,025.50133,215.30
Cash Retained (M)1,621,191.001,621,191.001,621,191.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-355,240.80-222,025.50-133,215.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,265,950.201,399,165.501,487,975.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,501.3115,501.3115,501.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share81.6790.2695.99
LTM Dividend per Share10.0010.0010.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share81.6790.2695.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend91.67100.26105.99
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Fair Value$1,810.39$2,484.64$3,501.49
Upside / Downside254.98%387.18%586.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,776,204.001,815,028.711,854,702.051,895,242.591,936,669.271,979,001.462,038,371.50
Payout Ratio8.73%24.98%41.24%57.49%73.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)155,013.00453,426.22764,810.951,089,591.691,428,205.301,781,101.311,885,493.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Year 1 PV (M)422,342.27426,516.20430,690.12
Year 2 PV (M)663,544.32676,724.49690,034.28
Year 3 PV (M)880,516.60906,881.37933,767.25
Year 4 PV (M)1,075,034.301,118,165.881,162,582.49
Year 5 PV (M)1,248,757.841,311,695.781,377,146.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,946,947.9641,960,291.5344,054,007.69
Equity Value (M)44,237,143.2946,400,275.2548,648,228.02
Shares Outstanding (M)15,501.3115,501.3115,501.31
Fair Value$2,853.77$2,993.31$3,138.33
Upside / Downside459.56%486.92%515.36%

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