Definitive Analysis
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Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$381.31 - $1,011.50$583.06
Multi-Stage$257.52 - $281.55$269.32
Blended Fair Value$426.19
Current Price$513.19
Upside-16.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.49%9.13%1.941.681.491.371.281.231.111.040.980.90
YoY Growth--14.93%13.13%8.60%6.76%4.40%10.91%6.83%5.50%9.64%11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.43%0.59%0.67%0.65%0.77%0.69%0.95%0.92%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)607.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)529.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.4275.8945.53
Cash Retained (M)529.10529.10529.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.42-75.89-45.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)407.68453.21483.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.3537.3537.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.9212.1412.95
LTM Dividend per Share2.092.092.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.9212.1412.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.0014.2215.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$381.31$583.06$1,011.50
Upside / Downside-25.70%13.61%97.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)607.10646.56688.58733.34781.01831.77856.73
Payout Ratio12.85%28.28%43.71%59.14%74.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.99182.83300.97433.69582.39748.60792.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)166.01167.58169.16
Year 2 PV (M)248.14252.86257.63
Year 3 PV (M)324.67333.99343.48
Year 4 PV (M)395.88411.10426.76
Year 5 PV (M)462.04484.35507.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,020.968,408.388,810.62
Equity Value (M)9,617.6910,058.2710,515.18
Shares Outstanding (M)37.3537.3537.35
Fair Value$257.52$269.32$281.55
Upside / Downside-49.82%-47.52%-45.14%

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