Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Evans Electric Ltd. (EVANS.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Personal Products & ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$338.70 - $660.18$466.16
Multi-Stage$253.89 - $277.25$265.36
Blended Fair Value$365.76
Current Price$165.00
Upside121.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.21%0.00%1.711.140.570.340.571.100.000.030.250.10
YoY Growth--50.00%100.00%69.03%-40.84%-48.21%0.00%-100.00%-89.40%150.73%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.27%1.07%1.10%1.39%0.80%2.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4912.187.31
Cash Retained (M)83.7283.7283.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.49-12.18-7.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.2371.5476.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.804.804.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.3814.9015.91
LTM Dividend per Share2.862.862.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.3814.9015.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.2317.7618.77
WACC / Discount Rate10.56%10.56%10.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$338.70$466.16$660.18
Upside / Downside105.27%182.52%300.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.44103.77110.52117.70125.35133.50137.51
Payout Ratio14.08%29.26%44.45%59.63%74.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.7230.3749.1270.1993.78120.15127.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.56%10.56%10.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27.2127.4727.73
Year 2 PV (M)39.4440.1940.95
Year 3 PV (M)50.4951.9453.42
Year 4 PV (M)60.4562.7865.17
Year 5 PV (M)69.3972.7576.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)972.181,019.141,067.89
Equity Value (M)1,219.171,274.261,331.38
Shares Outstanding (M)4.804.804.80
Fair Value$253.89$265.36$277.25
Upside / Downside53.87%60.82%68.03%

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