Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Kawin Technology Share-Holding Co., Ltd. (688687.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.72 - $80.13$37.60
Multi-Stage$14.73 - $16.09$15.40
Blended Fair Value$26.50
Current Price$28.00
Upside-5.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720152014
DPS0.00%20.04%0.270.200.250.150.000.000.000.010.030.06
YoY Growth--31.58%-20.04%67.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-77.76%-41.09%34.22%
Dividend Yield--1.05%0.63%0.95%0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.3617.1010.26
Cash Retained (M)83.3083.3083.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.36-17.10-10.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.9466.2073.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)169.28169.28169.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.72$37.60$80.13
Upside / Downside-18.87%34.29%186.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.81145.70155.17165.26176.00187.44193.07
Payout Ratio39.11%49.29%59.47%69.64%79.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.5171.8292.28115.09140.49168.70178.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)65.5766.1966.81
Year 2 PV (M)76.9278.3879.86
Year 3 PV (M)87.5990.1092.66
Year 4 PV (M)97.61101.36105.22
Year 5 PV (M)107.01112.18117.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,058.552,157.982,261.22
Equity Value (M)2,493.242,606.192,723.32
Shares Outstanding (M)169.28169.28169.28
Fair Value$14.73$15.40$16.09
Upside / Downside-47.40%-45.01%-42.54%

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