Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Kawin Technology Share-Holding Co., Ltd. (688687.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.05 - $73.49$35.97
Multi-Stage$14.47 - $15.81$15.13
Blended Fair Value$25.55
Current Price$28.00
Upside-8.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720152014
DPS0.00%20.04%0.270.200.250.150.000.000.000.010.030.06
YoY Growth--31.58%-20.04%67.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-77.76%-41.09%34.22%
Dividend Yield--1.05%0.63%0.95%0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.3617.1010.26
Cash Retained (M)83.3083.3083.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.36-17.10-10.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.9466.2073.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)169.28169.28169.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.05$35.97$73.49
Upside / Downside-21.25%28.47%162.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.81145.70155.17165.26176.00187.44193.07
Payout Ratio39.11%49.29%59.47%69.64%79.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.5171.8292.28115.09140.49168.70178.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)65.5166.1366.75
Year 2 PV (M)76.7978.2579.73
Year 3 PV (M)87.3789.8892.43
Year 4 PV (M)97.28101.02104.87
Year 5 PV (M)106.56111.71117.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,016.722,114.132,215.27
Equity Value (M)2,450.232,561.122,676.10
Shares Outstanding (M)169.28169.28169.28
Fair Value$14.47$15.13$15.81
Upside / Downside-48.31%-45.97%-43.54%

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