Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CETC Digital Technology Co.,Ltd. (600850.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.53 - $47.10$26.92
Multi-Stage$12.31 - $13.43$12.86
Blended Fair Value$19.89
Current Price$28.74
Upside-30.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.19%15.67%0.460.310.240.170.160.230.140.140.190.15
YoY Growth--50.32%25.92%43.17%8.34%-30.94%58.39%2.85%-25.45%26.09%38.12%
Dividend Yield--1.90%1.52%0.89%0.85%0.69%1.36%0.75%0.97%1.05%0.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)506.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)254.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.3263.3237.99
Cash Retained (M)254.14254.14254.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.32-63.32-37.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)152.82190.81216.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)684.49684.49684.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.280.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.280.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.68
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.53$26.92$47.10
Upside / Downside-38.99%-6.35%63.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)506.58539.50574.57611.92651.69694.05714.87
Payout Ratio49.83%57.87%65.90%73.93%81.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.44312.19378.64452.41534.17624.65661.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)283.56286.25288.94
Year 2 PV (M)312.38318.33324.34
Year 3 PV (M)339.01348.75358.66
Year 4 PV (M)363.57377.56391.94
Year 5 PV (M)386.17404.82424.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,743.347,069.047,407.21
Equity Value (M)8,428.038,804.749,195.27
Shares Outstanding (M)684.49684.49684.49
Fair Value$12.31$12.86$13.43
Upside / Downside-57.16%-55.24%-53.26%

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