Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CETC Digital Technology Co.,Ltd. (600850.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.23 - $39.79$24.20
Multi-Stage$11.72 - $12.79$12.25
Blended Fair Value$18.23
Current Price$28.74
Upside-36.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.19%15.67%0.460.310.240.170.160.230.140.140.190.15
YoY Growth--50.32%25.92%43.17%8.34%-30.94%58.39%2.85%-25.45%26.09%38.12%
Dividend Yield--1.90%1.52%0.89%0.85%0.69%1.36%0.75%0.97%1.05%0.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)506.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)254.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.3263.3237.99
Cash Retained (M)254.14254.14254.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.32-63.32-37.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)152.82190.81216.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)684.49684.49684.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.280.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.280.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.68
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.23$24.20$39.79
Upside / Downside-43.54%-15.78%38.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)506.58539.50574.57611.92651.69694.05714.87
Payout Ratio49.83%57.87%65.90%73.93%81.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.44312.19378.64452.41534.17624.65661.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)282.82285.50288.18
Year 2 PV (M)310.74316.66322.63
Year 3 PV (M)336.35346.01355.84
Year 4 PV (M)359.77373.61387.84
Year 5 PV (M)381.12399.53418.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,354.346,661.266,979.93
Equity Value (M)8,025.158,382.568,753.07
Shares Outstanding (M)684.49684.49684.49
Fair Value$11.72$12.25$12.79
Upside / Downside-59.21%-57.39%-55.51%

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