Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nichias Corporation (5393.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21,028.12 - $92,807.39$49,826.81
Multi-Stage$13,683.97 - $14,999.05$14,329.28
Blended Fair Value$32,078.04
Current Price$5,558.00
Upside477.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.47%13.32%104.1696.6192.6384.3578.2476.1266.2258.5149.5035.25
YoY Growth--7.81%4.31%9.81%7.82%2.77%14.96%13.19%18.19%40.42%18.22%
Dividend Yield--1.89%2.03%3.10%3.74%2.80%3.39%3.30%2.11%1.91%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,353.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,015.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)23,338.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,070.603,794.132,276.48
Cash Retained (M)23,338.0023,338.0023,338.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,070.60-3,794.13-2,276.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,267.4019,543.8821,061.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.4264.4264.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share268.04303.38326.94
LTM Dividend per Share108.89108.89108.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share268.04303.38326.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend376.93412.27435.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$21,028.12$49,826.81$92,807.39
Upside / Downside278.34%796.49%1,569.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,353.0032,013.8433,765.5635,613.1337,561.7939,617.0840,805.59
Payout Ratio23.11%36.49%49.87%63.24%76.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,015.0011,681.5716,837.8222,523.3728,780.7035,655.3737,745.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)10,880.5010,984.6511,088.80
Year 2 PV (M)14,607.6914,888.6815,172.34
Year 3 PV (M)18,200.2418,727.8919,265.65
Year 4 PV (M)21,661.7322,503.0923,368.73
Year 5 PV (M)24,995.6626,215.0727,481.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)791,184.36829,782.18869,871.91
Equity Value (M)881,530.19923,101.57966,249.05
Shares Outstanding (M)64.4264.4264.42
Fair Value$13,683.97$14,329.28$14,999.05
Upside / Downside146.20%157.81%169.86%

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