Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nichias Corporation (5393.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21,033.89 - $92,807.39$49,856.11
Multi-Stage$13,686.17 - $15,001.48$14,331.59
Blended Fair Value$32,093.85
Current Price$5,558.00
Upside477.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.47%13.32%104.1696.6192.6384.3578.2476.1266.2258.5149.5035.25
YoY Growth--7.81%4.31%9.81%7.82%2.77%14.96%13.19%18.19%40.42%18.22%
Dividend Yield--1.89%2.03%3.10%3.74%2.80%3.39%3.30%2.11%1.91%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,353.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,015.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)23,338.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,070.603,794.132,276.48
Cash Retained (M)23,338.0023,338.0023,338.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,070.60-3,794.13-2,276.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,267.4019,543.8821,061.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.4264.4264.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share268.04303.38326.94
LTM Dividend per Share108.89108.89108.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share268.04303.38326.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend376.93412.27435.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$21,033.89$49,856.11$92,807.39
Upside / Downside278.44%797.02%1,569.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,353.0032,013.8433,765.5635,613.1337,561.7939,617.0840,805.59
Payout Ratio23.11%36.49%49.87%63.24%76.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,015.0011,681.5716,837.8222,523.3728,780.7035,655.3737,745.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)10,880.5610,984.7011,088.85
Year 2 PV (M)14,607.8314,888.8215,172.49
Year 3 PV (M)18,200.5018,728.1619,265.93
Year 4 PV (M)21,662.1522,503.5323,369.18
Year 5 PV (M)24,996.2626,215.7027,482.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)791,324.79829,929.46870,026.31
Equity Value (M)881,672.09923,250.39966,405.04
Shares Outstanding (M)64.4264.4264.42
Fair Value$13,686.17$14,331.59$15,001.48
Upside / Downside146.24%157.86%169.91%

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