Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Zhaofeng Mechanical and Electronic Co.,Ltd. (300695.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.41 - $67.03$54.37
Multi-Stage$51.81 - $56.75$54.23
Blended Fair Value$54.30
Current Price$103.60
Upside-47.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.82%50.98%0.640.000.180.012.580.861.290.001.961.91
YoY Growth--98,562.01%-99.64%2,102.54%-99.68%200.00%-33.33%0.00%-100.00%2.50%18,352.18%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.00%0.55%0.02%6.43%2.27%2.81%0.00%3.15%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)350.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)285.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.1543.8426.31
Cash Retained (M)285.93285.93285.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.15-43.84-26.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)215.78242.08259.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.6077.6077.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.783.123.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.783.123.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.623.964.18
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.54%2.54%3.54%
Fair Value$43.41$54.37$67.03
Upside / Downside-58.10%-47.52%-35.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)350.75359.66368.80378.17387.78397.64409.57
Payout Ratio18.48%32.79%47.09%61.39%75.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.82117.92173.66232.17293.54357.87378.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.54%2.54%3.54%
Year 1 PV (M)106.15107.20108.24
Year 2 PV (M)140.74143.52146.34
Year 3 PV (M)169.38174.43179.59
Year 4 PV (M)192.78200.49208.43
Year 5 PV (M)211.59222.21233.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,199.813,360.513,527.60
Equity Value (M)4,020.454,208.364,403.45
Shares Outstanding (M)77.6077.6077.60
Fair Value$51.81$54.23$56.75
Upside / Downside-49.99%-47.65%-45.23%

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