Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Zhaofeng Mechanical and Electronic Co.,Ltd. (300695.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.61 - $101.50$77.02
Multi-Stage$77.73 - $85.30$81.45
Blended Fair Value$79.23
Current Price$103.60
Upside-23.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.82%50.98%0.640.000.180.012.580.861.290.001.961.91
YoY Growth--98,562.01%-99.64%2,102.54%-99.68%200.00%-33.33%0.00%-100.00%2.50%18,352.18%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.00%0.55%0.02%6.43%2.27%2.81%0.00%3.15%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)350.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)285.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.1543.8426.31
Cash Retained (M)285.93285.93285.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.15-43.84-26.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)215.78242.08259.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.6077.6077.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.783.123.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.783.123.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.623.964.18
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate1.54%2.54%3.54%
Fair Value$58.61$77.02$101.50
Upside / Downside-43.43%-25.65%-2.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)350.75359.66368.80378.17387.78397.64409.57
Payout Ratio18.48%32.79%47.09%61.39%75.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.82117.92173.66232.17293.54357.87378.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate1.54%2.54%3.54%
Year 1 PV (M)108.31109.38110.44
Year 2 PV (M)146.52149.42152.35
Year 3 PV (M)179.93185.30190.77
Year 4 PV (M)208.96217.31225.91
Year 5 PV (M)234.01245.76257.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,154.015,412.855,681.98
Equity Value (M)6,031.746,320.026,619.45
Shares Outstanding (M)77.6077.6077.60
Fair Value$77.73$81.45$85.30
Upside / Downside-24.97%-21.38%-17.66%

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