Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Topindo Solusi Komunika Tbk. (TOSK.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.90 - $17.02$14.41
Multi-Stage$18.74 - $20.58$19.64
Blended Fair Value$17.03
Current Price$50.00
Upside-65.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.003.710.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,583.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,043.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,540.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,516.71947.95568.77
Cash Retained (M)5,540.365,540.365,540.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,516.71-947.95-568.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,023.654,592.424,971.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,375.194,375.194,375.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.90$14.41$17.02
Upside / Downside-76.20%-71.18%-65.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,583.577,507.737,432.657,358.337,284.747,211.907,428.25
Payout Ratio26.94%39.55%52.17%64.78%77.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,043.202,969.613,877.284,766.505,637.556,490.716,871.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,686.592,714.002,741.42
Year 2 PV (M)3,173.453,238.553,304.30
Year 3 PV (M)3,529.453,638.603,749.98
Year 4 PV (M)3,776.593,933.124,094.45
Year 5 PV (M)3,933.724,138.564,351.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,885.2268,263.9571,781.98
Equity Value (M)81,985.0385,926.7890,023.98
Shares Outstanding (M)4,375.194,375.194,375.19
Fair Value$18.74$19.64$20.58
Upside / Downside-62.52%-60.72%-58.85%

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