Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Topindo Solusi Komunika Tbk. (TOSK.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.27 - $17.66$14.90
Multi-Stage$19.86 - $21.81$20.82
Blended Fair Value$17.86
Current Price$50.00
Upside-64.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.003.710.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,583.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,043.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,540.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,516.71947.95568.77
Cash Retained (M)5,540.365,540.365,540.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,516.71-947.95-568.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,023.654,592.424,971.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,375.194,375.194,375.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.27$14.90$17.66
Upside / Downside-75.46%-70.20%-64.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,583.577,507.737,432.657,358.337,284.747,211.907,428.25
Payout Ratio26.94%39.55%52.17%64.78%77.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,043.202,969.613,877.284,766.505,637.556,490.716,871.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,695.012,722.512,750.01
Year 2 PV (M)3,193.363,258.873,325.04
Year 3 PV (M)3,562.723,672.903,785.33
Year 4 PV (M)3,824.143,982.634,146.00
Year 5 PV (M)3,995.724,203.794,420.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,613.8473,238.7977,013.20
Equity Value (M)86,884.7891,079.4895,440.00
Shares Outstanding (M)4,375.194,375.194,375.19
Fair Value$19.86$20.82$21.81
Upside / Downside-60.28%-58.37%-56.37%

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