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PT Lautan Luas Tbk (LTLS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,116.67 - $1,775.39$1,416.47
Multi-Stage$2,353.89 - $2,590.05$2,469.67
Blended Fair Value$1,943.07
Current Price$880.00
Upside120.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.28%0.73%34.9052.1498.9715.4135.9541.2230.4412.170.0017.79
YoY Growth---33.07%-47.32%542.36%-57.14%-12.79%35.45%150.00%0.00%-100.00%-45.16%
Dividend Yield--3.88%4.59%7.39%2.00%7.22%9.16%4.65%1.87%0.00%4.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163,395.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65,911.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)97,484.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32,679.0020,424.3812,254.63
Cash Retained (M)97,484.0097,484.0097,484.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-32,679.00-20,424.38-12,254.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)64,805.0077,059.6385,229.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,491.041,491.041,491.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share43.4651.6857.16
LTM Dividend per Share44.2044.2044.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share43.4651.6857.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend87.6795.89101.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-1.27%-0.27%0.73%
Fair Value$1,116.67$1,416.47$1,775.39
Upside / Downside26.89%60.96%101.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163,395.00162,961.57162,529.30162,098.17161,668.18161,239.34166,076.52
Payout Ratio40.34%50.27%60.20%70.14%80.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65,911.0081,922.0197,847.62113,688.16129,443.98145,115.40153,620.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-1.27%-0.27%0.73%
Year 1 PV (M)76,160.6876,932.0577,703.41
Year 2 PV (M)84,568.9086,290.6388,029.70
Year 3 PV (M)91,349.4394,153.2497,013.84
Year 4 PV (M)96,694.70100,671.97104,770.69
Year 5 PV (M)100,777.72105,985.61111,406.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,060,193.723,218,335.273,382,948.11
Equity Value (M)3,509,745.163,682,368.773,861,872.37
Shares Outstanding (M)1,491.041,491.041,491.04
Fair Value$2,353.89$2,469.67$2,590.05
Upside / Downside167.49%180.64%194.32%

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