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Definitive Analysis

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MITSUI-SOKO HOLDINGS Co., Ltd. (9302.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,698.16 - $2,900.95$2,219.35
Multi-Stage$1,508.56 - $1,644.72$1,575.42
Blended Fair Value$1,897.39
Current Price$4,135.00
Upside-54.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS43.62%12.99%50.6361.2055.1321.5716.598.290.000.0016.5916.59
YoY Growth---17.27%11.01%155.58%30.06%100.16%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%11.10%
Dividend Yield--1.29%3.85%4.73%2.25%1.97%1.67%0.00%0.00%3.24%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,782.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,641.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,141.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,956.401,222.75733.65
Cash Retained (M)6,141.006,141.006,141.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,956.40-1,222.75-733.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,184.604,918.255,407.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)74.8274.8274.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.9365.7472.27
LTM Dividend per Share48.6648.6648.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.9365.7472.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend104.59114.40120.94
WACC / Discount Rate11.12%11.12%11.12%
Growth Rate4.67%5.67%6.67%
Fair Value$1,698.16$2,219.35$2,900.95
Upside / Downside-58.93%-46.33%-29.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,782.0010,336.9610,923.3911,543.1012,197.9712,889.9913,276.69
Payout Ratio37.22%47.78%58.33%68.89%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,641.004,938.706,371.937,951.889,690.5911,600.9912,280.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.12%11.12%11.12%
Growth Rate4.67%5.67%6.67%
Year 1 PV (M)4,402.414,444.464,486.52
Year 2 PV (M)5,063.205,160.415,258.54
Year 3 PV (M)5,632.515,795.495,961.58
Year 4 PV (M)6,118.716,355.906,599.92
Year 5 PV (M)6,529.536,847.447,177.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)85,123.0589,267.6293,572.08
Equity Value (M)112,869.40117,871.33123,056.27
Shares Outstanding (M)74.8274.8274.82
Fair Value$1,508.56$1,575.42$1,644.72
Upside / Downside-63.52%-61.90%-60.22%

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