Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Rise Consulting Group, Inc. (9168.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$424.49 - $606.73$513.87
Multi-Stage$653.42 - $718.21$685.18
Blended Fair Value$599.52
Current Price$1,076.00
Upside-44.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,540.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)218.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,322.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)308.04192.52115.51
Cash Retained (M)1,322.181,322.181,322.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-308.04-192.52-115.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,014.141,129.661,206.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.8224.8224.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.8545.5148.61
LTM Dividend per Share8.788.788.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.8545.5148.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend49.6354.2957.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$424.49$513.87$606.73
Upside / Downside-60.55%-52.24%-43.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,540.181,524.781,509.531,494.441,479.491,464.701,508.64
Payout Ratio14.15%29.32%44.49%59.66%74.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)218.00447.12671.63891.611,107.121,318.231,395.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)404.35408.48412.60
Year 2 PV (M)549.30560.56571.95
Year 3 PV (M)659.46679.86700.67
Year 4 PV (M)740.54771.24802.87
Year 5 PV (M)797.42838.94882.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,069.4513,750.0014,458.62
Equity Value (M)16,220.5217,009.0817,828.89
Shares Outstanding (M)24.8224.8224.82
Fair Value$653.42$685.18$718.21
Upside / Downside-39.27%-36.32%-33.25%

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