Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment Co.,Ltd. (688630.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.05 - $61.73$41.27
Multi-Stage$21.37 - $23.33$22.33
Blended Fair Value$31.80
Current Price$141.34
Upside-77.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS594.14%0.00%0.790.000.180.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--16,247.87%-97.37%1,105.12%1,724.59%1,603.54%-67.86%-81.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.01%0.24%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.8925.5515.33
Cash Retained (M)155.62155.62155.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.89-25.55-15.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.73130.06140.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.27132.27132.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.981.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.981.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.05$41.27$61.73
Upside / Downside-79.44%-70.80%-56.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.43217.72231.87246.94262.99280.09288.49
Payout Ratio23.88%37.10%50.33%63.55%76.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.8280.78116.69156.94201.92252.08266.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)72.7573.4474.13
Year 2 PV (M)94.6696.4698.28
Year 3 PV (M)114.65117.94121.29
Year 4 PV (M)132.85137.96143.22
Year 5 PV (M)149.38156.60164.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,262.392,371.672,485.13
Equity Value (M)2,826.692,954.073,086.14
Shares Outstanding (M)132.27132.27132.27
Fair Value$21.37$22.33$23.33
Upside / Downside-84.88%-84.20%-83.49%

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