Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kasumigaseki Capital Co.,Ltd. (3498.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16,551.58 - $83,254.77$29,613.47
Multi-Stage$9,871.49 - $10,798.76$10,326.65
Blended Fair Value$19,970.06
Current Price$8,810.00
Upside126.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS97.90%0.00%83.4924.4712.036.643.162.750.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--241.13%103.39%81.20%110.15%14.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.39%0.26%0.26%0.12%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,251.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,670.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,581.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,050.201,281.38768.83
Cash Retained (M)8,581.008,581.008,581.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,050.20-1,281.38-768.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,530.807,299.637,812.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.0120.0120.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share326.31364.72390.33
LTM Dividend per Share83.4483.4483.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share326.31364.72390.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend409.75448.16473.77
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16,551.58$29,613.47$83,254.77
Upside / Downside87.87%236.13%845.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,251.0010,917.3211,626.9412,382.6913,187.5714,044.7614,466.10
Payout Ratio16.29%31.03%45.77%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,670.003,387.965,322.197,493.569,924.7312,640.2813,381.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,104.333,133.753,163.18
Year 2 PV (M)4,468.384,553.494,639.41
Year 3 PV (M)5,764.725,930.216,098.83
Year 4 PV (M)6,995.827,264.867,541.58
Year 5 PV (M)8,164.078,558.408,967.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)169,073.00177,239.29185,718.12
Equity Value (M)197,570.32206,680.00216,128.93
Shares Outstanding (M)20.0120.0120.01
Fair Value$9,871.49$10,326.65$10,798.76
Upside / Downside12.05%17.22%22.57%

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