Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kasumigaseki Capital Co.,Ltd. (3498.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,695.52 - $17,140.53$12,018.41
Multi-Stage$6,510.63 - $7,109.18$6,804.50
Blended Fair Value$9,411.46
Current Price$8,810.00
Upside6.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS97.90%0.00%83.4924.4712.036.643.162.750.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--241.13%103.39%81.20%110.15%14.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.39%0.26%0.26%0.12%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,251.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,670.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,581.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,050.201,281.38768.83
Cash Retained (M)8,581.008,581.008,581.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,050.20-1,281.38-768.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,530.807,299.637,812.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.0120.0120.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share326.31364.72390.33
LTM Dividend per Share83.4483.4483.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share326.31364.72390.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend409.75448.16473.77
WACC / Discount Rate10.47%10.47%10.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8,695.52$12,018.41$17,140.53
Upside / Downside-1.30%36.42%94.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,251.0010,917.3211,626.9412,382.6913,187.5714,044.7614,466.10
Payout Ratio16.29%31.03%45.77%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,670.003,387.965,322.197,493.569,924.7312,640.2813,381.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.47%10.47%10.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,038.023,066.823,095.62
Year 2 PV (M)4,279.544,361.054,443.33
Year 3 PV (M)5,403.165,558.275,716.31
Year 4 PV (M)6,416.996,663.776,917.60
Year 5 PV (M)7,328.637,682.618,050.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)103,838.99108,854.45114,061.87
Equity Value (M)130,305.34136,186.97142,284.86
Shares Outstanding (M)20.0120.0120.01
Fair Value$6,510.63$6,804.50$7,109.18
Upside / Downside-26.10%-22.76%-19.31%

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