Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Gon Technology Co., Ltd. (002768.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$530.68 - $625.23$585.93
Multi-Stage$134.96 - $147.94$141.33
Blended Fair Value$363.63
Current Price$49.16
Upside639.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.98%41.32%0.690.760.660.530.250.260.230.180.080.01
YoY Growth---8.19%14.08%24.51%112.65%-2.62%12.62%28.23%114.59%484.84%-35.06%
Dividend Yield--2.83%3.63%2.40%2.37%0.91%0.58%0.82%0.69%0.34%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)833.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)184.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)648.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.66104.1662.50
Cash Retained (M)648.51648.51648.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.66-104.16-62.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)481.85544.35586.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)265.05265.05265.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.822.052.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.822.052.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.752.91
WACC / Discount Rate5.41%5.41%5.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$530.68$585.93$625.23
Upside / Downside979.49%1,091.89%1,171.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)833.28887.45945.131,006.571,071.991,141.671,175.92
Payout Ratio22.17%35.74%49.30%62.87%76.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)184.78317.17465.99632.83819.381,027.501,087.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.41%5.41%5.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)298.08300.90303.73
Year 2 PV (M)411.58419.42427.33
Year 3 PV (M)525.29540.37555.73
Year 4 PV (M)639.20663.78689.06
Year 5 PV (M)753.31789.69827.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,145.0534,745.9736,408.16
Equity Value (M)35,772.5037,460.1339,211.49
Shares Outstanding (M)265.05265.05265.05
Fair Value$134.96$141.33$147.94
Upside / Downside174.54%187.49%200.93%

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