Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Gon Technology Co., Ltd. (002768.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$530.68 - $625.23$585.93
Multi-Stage$145.80 - $159.84$152.69
Blended Fair Value$369.31
Current Price$49.16
Upside651.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.98%41.32%0.690.760.660.530.250.260.230.180.080.01
YoY Growth---8.19%14.08%24.51%112.65%-2.62%12.62%28.23%114.59%484.84%-35.06%
Dividend Yield--2.83%3.63%2.40%2.37%0.91%0.58%0.82%0.69%0.34%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)833.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)184.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)648.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.66104.1662.50
Cash Retained (M)648.51648.51648.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.66-104.16-62.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)481.85544.35586.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)265.05265.05265.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.822.052.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.822.052.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.752.91
WACC / Discount Rate5.23%5.23%5.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$530.68$585.93$625.23
Upside / Downside979.49%1,091.89%1,171.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)833.28887.45945.131,006.571,071.991,141.671,175.92
Payout Ratio22.17%35.74%49.30%62.87%76.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)184.78317.17465.99632.83819.381,027.501,087.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.23%5.23%5.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)298.57301.40304.23
Year 2 PV (M)412.93420.80428.74
Year 3 PV (M)527.88543.03558.47
Year 4 PV (M)643.40668.15693.60
Year 5 PV (M)759.51796.19834.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,002.7937,741.7439,547.24
Equity Value (M)38,645.0840,471.3042,366.55
Shares Outstanding (M)265.05265.05265.05
Fair Value$145.80$152.69$159.84
Upside / Downside196.58%210.60%225.15%

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