Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tinergy Chemical Co., Ltd. (002145.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.38 - $12.08$5.61
Multi-Stage$2.16 - $2.36$2.26
Blended Fair Value$3.94
Current Price$5.79
Upside-32.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.21%18.17%0.080.110.060.040.020.030.020.020.020.02
YoY Growth---24.61%101.99%56.85%53.87%-16.25%20.80%42.06%-8.82%-22.86%42.94%
Dividend Yield--1.93%2.61%0.85%0.52%0.36%0.95%0.69%0.44%0.40%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)433.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)303.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.6954.1832.51
Cash Retained (M)303.28303.28303.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.69-54.18-32.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)216.59249.10270.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,632.543,632.543,632.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.38$5.61$12.08
Upside / Downside-41.68%-3.12%108.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)433.44461.62491.62523.58557.61593.86611.67
Payout Ratio30.03%42.02%54.02%66.01%78.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.16193.99265.56345.62434.97534.47565.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)177.14178.82180.50
Year 2 PV (M)221.44225.66229.92
Year 3 PV (M)263.17270.72278.42
Year 4 PV (M)302.44314.07326.03
Year 5 PV (M)339.35355.74372.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,552.786,869.287,197.89
Equity Value (M)7,856.328,214.298,585.52
Shares Outstanding (M)3,632.543,632.543,632.54
Fair Value$2.16$2.26$2.36
Upside / Downside-62.65%-60.94%-59.18%

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