Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tinergy Chemical Co., Ltd. (002145.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.14 - $23.73$22.24
Multi-Stage$44.13 - $48.46$46.25
Blended Fair Value$34.25
Current Price$5.79
Upside491.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.21%18.17%0.080.110.060.040.020.030.020.020.020.02
YoY Growth---24.61%101.99%56.85%53.87%-16.25%20.80%42.06%-8.82%-22.86%42.94%
Dividend Yield--1.93%2.61%0.85%0.52%0.36%0.95%0.69%0.44%0.40%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)433.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)303.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.6954.1832.51
Cash Retained (M)303.28303.28303.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.69-54.18-32.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)216.59249.10270.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,632.543,632.543,632.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.14$22.24$23.73
Upside / Downside247.87%284.09%309.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)433.44461.62491.62523.58557.61593.86611.67
Payout Ratio30.03%42.02%54.02%66.01%78.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.16193.99265.56345.62434.97534.47565.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)237.79240.04242.30
Year 2 PV (M)399.03406.63414.30
Year 3 PV (M)636.59654.86673.48
Year 4 PV (M)982.051,019.821,058.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,479.171,550.611,624.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)156,586.37164,149.55172,002.19
Equity Value (M)160,321.00168,021.52176,015.73
Shares Outstanding (M)3,632.543,632.543,632.54
Fair Value$44.13$46.25$48.46
Upside / Downside662.26%698.87%736.88%

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