Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beiersdorf AG (BEI.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.57 - $154.94$114.48
Multi-Stage$97.39 - $106.70$101.96
Blended Fair Value$108.22
Current Price$106.60
Upside1.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.49%-21.57%0.060.710.710.710.710.710.710.710.710.71
YoY Growth---91.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.05%0.52%0.66%0.78%0.75%0.66%0.77%0.73%0.88%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,344.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)338.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,005.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)268.80168.00100.80
Cash Retained (M)1,005.501,005.501,005.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-268.80-168.00-100.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)736.70837.50904.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)224.91224.91224.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.283.724.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.511.511.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.283.724.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.785.235.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate2.60%3.60%4.60%
Fair Value$85.57$114.48$154.94
Upside / Downside-19.73%7.39%45.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,344.001,392.321,442.391,494.251,547.971,603.631,651.74
Payout Ratio25.19%38.15%51.11%64.07%77.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)338.50531.15737.23957.431,192.511,443.271,527.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate2.60%3.60%4.60%
Year 1 PV (M)485.59490.32495.06
Year 2 PV (M)616.17628.24640.43
Year 3 PV (M)731.57753.17775.19
Year 4 PV (M)833.04865.99899.92
Year 5 PV (M)921.72967.521,015.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,316.2219,226.4420,172.48
Equity Value (M)21,904.3122,931.6923,998.21
Shares Outstanding (M)224.91224.91224.91
Fair Value$97.39$101.96$106.70
Upside / Downside-8.64%-4.35%0.10%

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