Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (601608.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.89 - $1.42$1.13
Multi-Stage$0.98 - $1.08$1.03
Blended Fair Value$1.08
Current Price$5.38
Upside-79.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS65.22%-8.29%0.040.030.040.050.060.000.100.070.090.10
YoY Growth--43.13%-40.33%-12.98%-21.42%2,008.26%-97.07%39.73%-19.79%-13.15%19.87%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.57%1.13%1.36%1.72%0.09%1.91%2.03%1.54%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)375.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)341.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.0646.9128.15
Cash Retained (M)341.25341.25341.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.06-46.91-28.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)266.19294.34313.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,576.924,576.924,576.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Fair Value$0.89$1.13$1.42
Upside / Downside-83.50%-79.00%-73.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)375.31387.60400.29413.40426.94440.92454.15
Payout Ratio9.07%25.26%41.44%57.63%73.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.0697.91165.90238.24315.15396.83420.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Year 1 PV (M)88.2889.1490.01
Year 2 PV (M)134.87137.53140.20
Year 3 PV (M)174.64179.81185.09
Year 4 PV (M)208.29216.56225.07
Year 5 PV (M)236.48248.27260.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,663.623,846.264,036.12
Equity Value (M)4,506.194,717.574,937.01
Shares Outstanding (M)4,576.924,576.924,576.92
Fair Value$0.98$1.03$1.08
Upside / Downside-81.70%-80.84%-79.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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