Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (601608.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.42 - $15.82$14.82
Multi-Stage$8.24 - $9.07$8.65
Blended Fair Value$11.74
Current Price$5.38
Upside118.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS65.22%-8.29%0.040.030.040.050.060.000.100.070.090.10
YoY Growth--43.13%-40.33%-12.98%-21.42%2,008.26%-97.07%39.73%-19.79%-13.15%19.87%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.57%1.13%1.36%1.72%0.09%1.91%2.03%1.54%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)375.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)341.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.0646.9128.15
Cash Retained (M)341.25341.25341.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.06-46.91-28.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)266.19294.34313.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,576.924,576.924,576.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate1.78%1.78%1.78%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Fair Value$13.42$14.82$15.82
Upside / Downside149.42%175.47%194.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)375.31387.60400.29413.40426.94440.92454.15
Payout Ratio9.07%25.26%41.44%57.63%73.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.0697.91165.90238.24315.15396.83420.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.78%1.78%1.78%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Year 1 PV (M)95.2696.1997.12
Year 2 PV (M)157.05160.14163.26
Year 3 PV (M)219.44225.94232.57
Year 4 PV (M)282.43293.64305.18
Year 5 PV (M)346.02363.27381.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,630.3838,456.5340,354.80
Equity Value (M)37,730.6039,595.7341,534.14
Shares Outstanding (M)4,576.924,576.924,576.92
Fair Value$8.24$8.65$9.07
Upside / Downside53.23%60.80%68.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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