DDM Analysis: TALF.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$987.32 - $4,171.00	$2,465.06
Multi-Stage	$496.58 - $543.07	$519.40
Blended Fair Value	$1,492.23
Current Price	$300.00
Upside	397.41%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.92%	12.33%	8.00	5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	4.00
YoY Growth	-	-	60.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-25.00%	60.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.94%	1.60%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.48%	0.99%	0.79%	0.77%	0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	28,385.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10,827.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	17,558.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,677.11	3,548.19	2,128.92
Cash Retained (M)	17,558.07	17,558.07	17,558.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,677.11	-3,548.19	-2,128.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	11,880.96	14,009.87	15,429.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,353.44	1,353.44	1,353.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	8.78	10.35	11.40
LTM Dividend per Share	8.00	8.00	8.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	8.78	10.35	11.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	16.78	18.35	19.40
WACC / Discount Rate	7.29%	7.29%	7.29%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$987.32	$2,465.06	$4,171.00
Upside / Downside	229.11%	721.69%	1,290.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	28,385.55	30,230.61	32,195.60	34,288.31	36,517.05	38,890.66	40,057.38
Payout Ratio	38.14%	48.52%	58.89%	69.26%	79.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10,827.48	14,666.52	18,958.89	23,747.31	29,078.12	35,001.59	37,053.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.29%	7.29%	7.29%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	13,541.26	13,669.62	13,797.97
Year 2 PV (M)	16,161.33	16,469.16	16,779.89
Year 3 PV (M)	18,690.06	19,226.58	19,773.28
Year 4 PV (M)	21,129.76	21,942.35	22,778.16
Year 5 PV (M)	23,482.71	24,616.93	25,794.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	579,080.76	607,050.58	636,090.87
Equity Value (M)	672,085.89	702,975.23	735,014.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,353.44	1,353.44	1,353.44
Fair Value	$496.58	$519.40	$543.07
Upside / Downside	65.53%	73.13%	81.02%

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PT Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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