DDM Analysis: TALF.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2,165.66 - $4,171.00	$3,908.84
Multi-Stage	$650.35 - $711.94	$680.58
Blended Fair Value	$2,294.71
Current Price	$300.00
Upside	664.90%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.92%	12.33%	8.00	5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	4.00
YoY Growth	-	-	60.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-25.00%	60.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.94%	1.60%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.48%	0.99%	0.79%	0.77%	0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	28,385.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10,827.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	17,558.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,677.11	3,548.19	2,128.92
Cash Retained (M)	17,558.07	17,558.07	17,558.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,677.11	-3,548.19	-2,128.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	11,880.96	14,009.87	15,429.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,353.44	1,353.44	1,353.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	8.78	10.35	11.40
LTM Dividend per Share	8.00	8.00	8.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	8.78	10.35	11.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	16.78	18.35	19.40
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$2,165.66	$3,908.84	$4,171.00
Upside / Downside	621.89%	1,202.95%	1,290.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	28,385.55	30,230.61	32,195.60	34,288.31	36,517.05	38,890.66	40,057.38
Payout Ratio	38.14%	48.52%	58.89%	69.26%	79.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10,827.48	14,666.52	18,958.89	23,747.31	29,078.12	35,001.59	37,053.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	13,665.51	13,795.04	13,924.57
Year 2 PV (M)	16,459.26	16,772.77	17,089.23
Year 3 PV (M)	19,209.25	19,760.68	20,322.56
Year 4 PV (M)	21,915.98	22,758.81	23,625.72
Year 5 PV (M)	24,579.96	25,767.18	26,999.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	784,378.05	822,263.80	861,599.53
Equity Value (M)	880,208.02	921,118.28	963,561.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,353.44	1,353.44	1,353.44
Fair Value	$650.35	$680.58	$711.94
Upside / Downside	116.78%	126.86%	137.31%

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PT Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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