Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,280.99 - $12,939.86$8,999.51
Multi-Stage$1,575.54 - $1,723.89$1,648.35
Blended Fair Value$5,323.93
Current Price$432.00
Upside1,132.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.96%177.18%17.0019.0022.9613.900.0010.116.983.673.673.67
YoY Growth---10.53%-17.23%65.15%0.00%-100.00%44.74%90.00%0.00%0.00%578,566.58%
Dividend Yield--4.21%4.30%4.41%2.40%0.00%5.40%1.91%1.45%3.04%2.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,026,957.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)299,886.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)727,070.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)205,391.41128,369.6377,021.78
Cash Retained (M)727,070.83727,070.83727,070.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-205,391.41-128,369.63-77,021.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)521,679.42598,701.20650,049.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,783.4915,783.4915,783.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.0537.9341.19
LTM Dividend per Share19.0019.0019.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.0537.9341.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend52.0556.9360.19
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,280.99$8,999.51$12,939.86
Upside / Downside659.49%1,983.22%2,895.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,026,957.041,093,709.251,164,800.351,240,512.371,321,145.671,407,020.141,449,230.75
Payout Ratio29.20%41.36%53.52%65.68%77.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)299,886.21452,370.72623,411.19814,775.651,028,383.591,266,318.131,340,538.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)418,127.73422,091.03426,054.33
Year 2 PV (M)532,602.96542,747.55552,987.84
Year 3 PV (M)643,400.68661,870.40680,690.25
Year 4 PV (M)750,607.84779,474.10809,165.05
Year 5 PV (M)854,309.58895,573.05938,415.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,668,406.3722,714,998.4923,801,646.17
Equity Value (M)24,867,455.1626,016,754.6327,208,959.41
Shares Outstanding (M)15,783.4915,783.4915,783.49
Fair Value$1,575.54$1,648.35$1,723.89
Upside / Downside264.71%281.56%299.05%

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