Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.02 - $176.35$111.33
Multi-Stage$57.17 - $62.55$59.81
Blended Fair Value$85.57
Current Price$35.00
Upside144.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-32.19%-12.22%0.262.171.762.491.131.821.061.940.900.52
YoY Growth---87.99%23.51%-29.52%121.13%-37.99%71.25%-45.18%115.12%72.42%-45.57%
Dividend Yield--1.10%4.26%3.08%4.23%2.20%4.91%2.36%3.60%2.15%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)273.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.8436.7822.07
Cash Retained (M)273.35273.35273.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.84-36.78-22.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.50236.57251.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.9779.9779.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.682.963.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.682.963.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.943.223.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Fair Value$76.02$111.33$176.35
Upside / Downside117.19%218.08%403.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.21311.77330.39350.12371.02393.18404.97
Payout Ratio7.09%23.67%40.25%56.84%73.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.8673.80133.00198.99272.40353.86374.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Year 1 PV (M)67.0567.6968.33
Year 2 PV (M)109.77111.87113.99
Year 3 PV (M)149.20153.51157.90
Year 4 PV (M)185.55192.72200.10
Year 5 PV (M)218.98229.61240.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,840.844,027.314,220.95
Equity Value (M)4,571.394,782.715,001.91
Shares Outstanding (M)79.9779.9779.97
Fair Value$57.17$59.81$62.55
Upside / Downside63.33%70.88%78.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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