Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$92.62 - $272.56$146.06
Multi-Stage$65.84 - $72.08$68.90
Blended Fair Value$107.48
Current Price$35.00
Upside207.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-32.19%-12.22%0.262.171.762.491.131.821.061.940.900.52
YoY Growth---87.99%23.51%-29.52%121.13%-37.99%71.25%-45.18%115.12%72.42%-45.57%
Dividend Yield--1.10%4.26%3.08%4.23%2.20%4.91%2.36%3.60%2.15%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)273.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.8436.7822.07
Cash Retained (M)273.35273.35273.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.84-36.78-22.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.50236.57251.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.9779.9779.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.682.963.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.682.963.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.943.223.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Fair Value$92.62$146.06$272.56
Upside / Downside164.64%317.32%678.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.21311.77330.39350.12371.02393.18404.97
Payout Ratio7.09%23.67%40.25%56.84%73.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.8673.80133.00198.99272.40353.86374.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Year 1 PV (M)67.5068.1468.79
Year 2 PV (M)111.25113.38115.53
Year 3 PV (M)152.24156.63161.10
Year 4 PV (M)190.60197.96205.54
Year 5 PV (M)226.45237.44248.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,517.204,736.504,964.24
Equity Value (M)5,265.235,510.065,764.06
Shares Outstanding (M)79.9779.9779.97
Fair Value$65.84$68.90$72.08
Upside / Downside88.12%96.87%105.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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