Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Sunglow Packaging Technology Co.,Ltd (603499.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.17 - $107.39$98.55
Multi-Stage$13.76 - $15.05$14.39
Blended Fair Value$56.47
Current Price$17.60
Upside220.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.99%-3.98%0.070.060.020.010.050.090.080.000.000.20
YoY Growth--16.82%152.20%98.61%-75.32%-43.52%1.22%18,772.19%-68.67%-99.29%92.90%
Dividend Yield--0.43%0.36%0.34%0.21%0.87%1.08%0.75%0.00%0.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5715.989.59
Cash Retained (M)76.1076.1076.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.57-15.98-9.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.5360.1266.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)236.75236.75236.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.17$98.55$107.39
Upside / Downside71.42%459.92%510.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.84136.15145.00154.43164.46175.16180.41
Payout Ratio40.47%50.38%60.28%70.19%80.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.7468.5987.41108.39131.73157.64166.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)63.4964.1064.70
Year 2 PV (M)74.9176.3377.77
Year 3 PV (M)85.9888.4590.97
Year 4 PV (M)96.73100.45104.28
Year 5 PV (M)107.16112.34117.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,828.582,965.213,107.06
Equity Value (M)3,256.873,406.883,562.49
Shares Outstanding (M)236.75236.75236.75
Fair Value$13.76$14.39$15.05
Upside / Downside-21.84%-18.24%-14.50%

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