Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Sunglow Packaging Technology Co.,Ltd (603499.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.79 - $107.39$100.64
Multi-Stage$16.77 - $18.36$17.55
Blended Fair Value$59.10
Current Price$17.60
Upside235.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.99%-3.98%0.070.060.020.010.050.090.080.000.000.20
YoY Growth--16.82%152.20%98.61%-75.32%-43.52%1.22%18,772.19%-68.67%-99.29%92.90%
Dividend Yield--0.43%0.36%0.34%0.21%0.87%1.08%0.75%0.00%0.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5715.989.59
Cash Retained (M)76.1076.1076.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.57-15.98-9.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.5360.1266.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)236.75236.75236.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.79$100.64$107.39
Upside / Downside216.97%471.82%510.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.84136.15145.00154.43164.46175.16180.41
Payout Ratio40.47%50.38%60.28%70.19%80.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.7468.5987.41108.39131.73157.64166.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)63.9164.5165.12
Year 2 PV (M)75.8977.3378.79
Year 3 PV (M)87.6890.2092.76
Year 4 PV (M)99.28103.10107.03
Year 5 PV (M)110.71116.05121.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,533.183,703.843,881.02
Equity Value (M)3,970.654,155.034,346.33
Shares Outstanding (M)236.75236.75236.75
Fair Value$16.77$17.55$18.36
Upside / Downside-4.71%-0.28%4.31%

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