Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. (601211.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$173.71 - $448.66$420.46
Multi-Stage$63.54 - $69.58$66.50
Blended Fair Value$243.48
Current Price$18.87
Upside1,190.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.23%18.12%1.040.991.050.880.740.560.740.700.790.38
YoY Growth--5.09%-5.69%19.47%18.76%32.38%-24.46%5.41%-11.46%109.71%92.11%
Dividend Yield--6.04%7.08%7.30%5.59%4.55%3.43%3.62%4.11%4.35%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25,575.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,274.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,300.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,115.063,196.911,918.15
Cash Retained (M)20,300.6820,300.6820,300.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,115.06-3,196.91-1,918.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,185.6217,103.7718,382.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,336.5011,336.5011,336.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.341.511.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.341.511.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$173.71$420.46$448.66
Upside / Downside820.57%2,128.22%2,277.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25,575.3027,237.6929,008.1430,893.6732,901.7635,040.3736,091.58
Payout Ratio20.62%34.50%48.37%62.25%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,274.619,396.7614,032.4919,231.1725,046.3931,536.3333,384.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,732.528,815.298,898.06
Year 2 PV (M)12,118.7512,349.5812,582.58
Year 3 PV (M)15,434.4115,877.4816,328.95
Year 4 PV (M)18,680.6119,399.0220,137.94
Year 5 PV (M)21,858.4222,914.1924,010.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)643,461.20674,540.61706,809.51
Equity Value (M)720,285.90753,896.16788,767.41
Shares Outstanding (M)11,336.5011,336.5011,336.50
Fair Value$63.54$66.50$69.58
Upside / Downside236.71%252.42%268.72%

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