DDM Analysis: 601211.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$173.71 - $448.66	$420.46
Multi-Stage	$63.54 - $69.58	$66.50
Blended Fair Value	$243.48
Current Price	$18.87
Upside	1,190.32%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.23%	18.12%	1.04	0.99	1.05	0.88	0.74	0.56	0.74	0.70	0.79	0.38
YoY Growth	-	-	5.09%	-5.69%	19.47%	18.76%	32.38%	-24.46%	5.41%	-11.46%	109.71%	92.11%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.04%	7.08%	7.30%	5.59%	4.55%	3.43%	3.62%	4.11%	4.35%	1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	25,575.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,274.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20,300.68

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,115.06	3,196.91	1,918.15
Cash Retained (M)	20,300.68	20,300.68	20,300.68
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,115.06	-3,196.91	-1,918.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15,185.62	17,103.77	18,382.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11,336.50	11,336.50	11,336.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.34	1.51	1.62
LTM Dividend per Share	0.47	0.47	0.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.34	1.51	1.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.80	1.97	2.09
WACC / Discount Rate	6.60%	6.60%	6.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$173.71	$420.46	$448.66
Upside / Downside	820.57%	2,128.22%	2,277.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	25,575.30	27,237.69	29,008.14	30,893.67	32,901.76	35,040.37	36,091.58
Payout Ratio	20.62%	34.50%	48.37%	62.25%	76.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,274.61	9,396.76	14,032.49	19,231.17	25,046.39	31,536.33	33,384.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.60%	6.60%	6.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	8,732.52	8,815.29	8,898.06
Year 2 PV (M)	12,118.75	12,349.58	12,582.58
Year 3 PV (M)	15,434.41	15,877.48	16,328.95
Year 4 PV (M)	18,680.61	19,399.02	20,137.94
Year 5 PV (M)	21,858.42	22,914.19	24,010.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)	643,461.20	674,540.61	706,809.51
Equity Value (M)	720,285.90	753,896.16	788,767.41
Shares Outstanding (M)	11,336.50	11,336.50	11,336.50
Fair Value	$63.54	$66.50	$69.58
Upside / Downside	236.71%	252.42%	268.72%

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Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. (601211.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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