Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ZhuZhou QianJin Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (600479.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.13 - $5.91$5.00
Multi-Stage$5.83 - $6.41$6.12
Blended Fair Value$5.56
Current Price$10.31
Upside-46.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.78%9.67%0.360.350.591.020.500.400.250.170.130.16
YoY Growth--3.33%-40.52%-42.11%105.18%25.25%59.19%47.06%31.13%-18.34%9.79%
Dividend Yield--3.57%3.21%5.07%8.16%5.62%4.58%2.38%1.28%0.94%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)250.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)246.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.0131.2518.75
Cash Retained (M)246.93246.93246.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.01-31.25-18.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)196.92215.68228.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.26421.26421.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-1.41%-0.41%0.59%
Fair Value$4.13$5.00$5.91
Upside / Downside-59.96%-51.48%-42.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)250.04249.00247.97246.95245.92244.91252.25
Payout Ratio1.24%18.99%36.74%54.50%72.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.1047.2991.12134.58177.68220.42233.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-1.41%-0.41%0.59%
Year 1 PV (M)42.5943.0243.45
Year 2 PV (M)73.9075.4076.93
Year 3 PV (M)98.29101.31104.40
Year 4 PV (M)116.87121.68126.64
Year 5 PV (M)130.56137.32144.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,995.502,098.782,206.29
Equity Value (M)2,457.702,577.522,702.06
Shares Outstanding (M)421.26421.26421.26
Fair Value$5.83$6.12$6.41
Upside / Downside-43.41%-40.65%-37.79%

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