Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ZhuZhou QianJin Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (600479.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.59 - $10.82$8.47
Multi-Stage$16.10 - $17.76$16.92
Blended Fair Value$12.70
Current Price$10.31
Upside23.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.78%9.67%0.360.350.591.020.500.400.250.170.130.16
YoY Growth--3.33%-40.52%-42.11%105.18%25.25%59.19%47.06%31.13%-18.34%9.79%
Dividend Yield--3.57%3.21%5.07%8.16%5.62%4.58%2.38%1.28%0.94%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)250.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)246.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.0131.2518.75
Cash Retained (M)246.93246.93246.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.01-31.25-18.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)196.92215.68228.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.26421.26421.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate5.69%5.69%5.69%
Growth Rate-1.41%-0.41%0.59%
Fair Value$6.59$8.47$10.82
Upside / Downside-36.09%-17.82%4.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)250.04249.00247.97246.95245.92244.91252.25
Payout Ratio1.24%18.99%36.74%54.50%72.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.1047.2991.12134.58177.68220.42233.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.69%5.69%5.69%
Growth Rate-1.41%-0.41%0.59%
Year 1 PV (M)44.3044.7545.20
Year 2 PV (M)79.9481.5783.22
Year 3 PV (M)110.59113.99117.46
Year 4 PV (M)136.76142.39148.20
Year 5 PV (M)158.91167.13175.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,253.076,576.716,913.61
Equity Value (M)6,783.577,126.547,483.38
Shares Outstanding (M)421.26421.26421.26
Fair Value$16.10$16.92$17.76
Upside / Downside56.19%64.09%72.30%

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