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Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.65 - $116.28$91.67
Multi-Stage$93.61 - $102.19$97.82
Blended Fair Value$94.75
Current Price$123.75
Upside-23.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.79%3.70%4.144.184.104.013.623.443.183.163.002.90
YoY Growth---0.96%2.04%2.09%10.74%5.40%7.97%0.86%5.06%3.46%0.90%
Dividend Yield--3.39%4.35%4.25%3.59%3.75%4.25%3.57%4.07%3.66%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,993.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,022.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)971.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)998.60624.13374.48
Cash Retained (M)971.00971.00971.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-998.60-624.13-374.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27.60346.88596.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)776.25776.25776.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.450.77
LTM Dividend per Share5.185.185.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.450.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.155.635.95
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Fair Value$71.65$91.67$116.28
Upside / Downside-42.10%-25.92%-6.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,993.005,132.185,275.245,422.285,573.435,728.795,900.65
Payout Ratio80.55%82.44%84.33%86.22%88.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,022.004,231.084,448.704,675.154,910.785,155.915,458.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)3,840.513,878.243,915.97
Year 2 PV (M)3,665.283,737.653,810.73
Year 3 PV (M)3,496.293,600.363,706.46
Year 4 PV (M)3,333.503,466.443,603.32
Year 5 PV (M)3,176.823,335.963,501.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,149.4357,912.2360,784.67
Equity Value (M)72,661.8375,930.8879,322.58
Shares Outstanding (M)776.25776.25776.25
Fair Value$93.61$97.82$102.19
Upside / Downside-24.36%-20.96%-17.42%

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